2019年社交媒体的22个预测

就这样，2018年已经接近尾声。我知道这一年还剩几天，但内容行业已经进入了回顾和预测的周期，如果读者希望在这一年结束时关注更多的节日事务，那也可以原谅。就我个人而言，我有很多购物要做，但我也会花时间规划2019年。对于界面来说，这将是一个重要的一年，我需要花一些时间远离Twitter，让它有一些形状。可能会有一两个奖金问题——我在年底前发布了一些与我们在这里的利益相关的故事——但是，否则，你每天在...

我们将回到什么样的世界？我请你在推特上分享你对2019年社交媒体的预测，你有很多很棒的想法(不幸的是，我几乎完全是从男人那里听到的！）让我们看看你的一些最好的建议，并加入一些我自己的建议：

社交网络：Monte Thigpen预测会有更多付费社交网络。传统观点认为，只有当尽可能多的人在社交网络上时，社交网络才能发挥作用。但传统观点似乎同样有可能是错误的。要想知道这可能是什么样子，考虑一下付费宽松频道的兴起。

Nik Sharma是那些认为2019年将回归群聊作为我们社交网络选择的人之一。这是我在最近的一集《重新编码解码》中说的。泰勒·洛伦兹在2017年说了这句话，因为这就是她未来的生活(Ryan Ruark补充说，这种现象将特别有利于不和谐和松懈。）

戴夫·史密斯说，“苹果或谷歌将再次尝试某种社交网络。”我们知道前脸谱网WordOne Michael Sayman正在为谷歌做一些社交应用，所以请考虑这个预测。

政策：威尔·奥雷姆斯（Will Oremus）说，“有专制倾向的国家元首将利用今年对Facebook的合理担忧作为借口，阻止访问、将其国有化或完全禁止其进入本国。”这已经发生了，这是肯定的！

Bret Carmichael预测，我们将看到在国家隐私监管方面采取的措施受到党派斗争的阻碍。听起来不错！提醒大家，在加利福尼亚州的隐私法案生效之前，该行业将一直持续到2020年，而我与之交谈的各位希望，通过一项全国性法案的竞争将最终结束。

FACEBOOK:Ken Goldsholl预测北美的使用率将下降。布兰登·阿维预测Facebook的付费群组成员。我预测，2019年，用户数量的适度下降将使Facebook的一些内容节制/外**扰问题有所改善，同时也会对其长期业务带来新的担忧。我也不认为2019年是Facebook故事腾飞的一年。

INSTAGRAM:Matt Wood预测INSTAGRAM正在进行的Facebookification项目将继续进行，但该应用程序将遭受严重的数据泄露。我不会猜测具体细节，但我确实认为2019年Instagram将面临某种清算。它富有魅力的创始人已经不在了，新闻界正在意识到一些长期存在的问题，而在某些精英中，越来越多的人意识到，一直盯着这个应用对你有害。

在产品方面，杜兰芬表示，Instagram购物将迎来突破性的一年。我预测2019年我们会看到独立的购物应用，我自己。可能他们也在测试的那个直接消息应用程序。

推特：威尔·普费弗（Will Pfeffer）知道这会伤害到我，他预测“推特将做出几十个有争议的用户界面更改，而且没有一个涉及编辑按钮。”他可能是对的。

凯文·米德尔顿说，Twitter将因**内容而从应用商店中撤出——在今年Tumblr惨败之后，这一预测似乎出人意料地有可能。

我预测推特会糊里糊涂，每个人都会不断地称它为“这个地狱网站”，并使用它。

YOUTUBE：前Facebook用户本·坎宁安（Ben Cunningham）预测YOUTUBE上会有更多的长格式连载内容。除了视频，我们能看“连续剧”吗？“S城”或“慢烧”或“哈里发”呢？希望看到一些人尝试。想知道这会是什么样子，可以看看Shane Dawson在臭名昭著的失败的YouTube会议TanaCon上的docu系列。

无论如何，没有人预测YouTube会控制其右翼极端主义问题。

快照：坎宁安预测会有更多的增强现实技术，这听起来是对的。如果没有一款出人意料的畅销产品，今年对Snap来说将是艰难的一年。

TIKTOK：没有人真的发送了TIKTOK预测，除非你算上AppAnnie的公关机构，该机构提供了这样的信息：“2019年，在电视和互联网上消费媒体的每小时中，有10分钟将来自个人移动视频流。应用程序Annie预测，TikTok等社交视频应用的兴起以及Instagram和Snapchat等社交媒体应用程序中短格式视频的突出将部分推动这一增长。”

我不知道TikTok现在是否在雷达下酝酿——Facebook历来最担心的低增长和缓慢增长的社交网络——或者它是否已经消失。所以，至少对我来说，把蒂克托克的未来算作一个真正的2019年之谜吧。

新应用程序：Alex Alam DM关于一款将各种聊天应用程序链接在一起的新社交应用程序的有趣预测，Adium风格：

Maybe this year or next, I’d expect to see a hilariously well-funded startup claiming to be “IFTTT for chat apps” which basically just means they remade Adium/old OSX Messages. If they time it right, there will be much ballyhoo until the major platforms arbitrarily shut off API access, crippling and dooming it. It will somehow still work with IRC, gchat, and uhhhhh, Yo.

ALM还预测“六个或更多”失败的Tumblr替换，以及乳齿象的显著增长。

Jannick Malling在电子邮件中表示，下一代社交应用程序只需在现有垂直应用程序中添加社交功能：

“It will start to be thought of more as an [operating system] for every app type, whether that’s for real estate, mental wellness, financial investing, or even scooters.

In every niche interest or activity, the apps that serve will continue to become more inherently social – because the underlying demand/desire for connecting with others and building a sense of community around those is still intact.

我们还可以肯定地预测：Byte的到来，Dom Hoffman的循环视频应用Vine的“续集”。

巨魔：大声说出以下笑话预言：

“一位美国国会议员对一个社交网络，任何社交网络，是如何运作的，提供了一个简洁、准确和富有启发性的解释。”-内德·伯克
“LinkedIn的故事，在一个绝望的尝试，以促进参与，跨到微软365产品，并造成街头骚乱时，人们知道他们不能选择退出。”-尼克哈斯
Facebook门户2发布了，它可以在你家里走动和跟随你。Zuki承诺它会在晚上睡到RoMBA风格，但你在半夜醒来一次，它肯定是透过你的橱柜“- Original**ell

感谢您阅读今年的界面。祝你们节日快乐，祝你们在2019年共度美好时光。

facebook的照片泄露

在一个极端的2018年发展中，Facebook在周五披露了另一个数据泄漏。这一次影响了多达680万人，允许876名不同开发者的1500个应用程序查看他们本不应该访问的照片。这是杰克·卡斯特雷纳克斯：

Facebook said the bug had to do with an error related to Facebook Login and its photos API, which allows developers to access Facebook photos within their own apps. All of the impacted users had logged into a third-party app using their Facebook accounts and granted them some degree of access to view their photos.

“We’re sorry this happened,” writes Tomer Bar, engineering director at Facebook. The disclosure comes exactly one day after Facebook opened a pop-up installation in New York to show people how “you can manage your privacy” on the site.

在TechCrunch，Josh Contine报告说，这可能会让Facebook变得昂贵：

Facebook initially didn’t disclose when it discovered the bug, but in resp***e to TechCrunch’s inquiry, a spokesperson says that it was discovered and fixed on September 25th. They say it took time for the company to investigate which apps and people were impacted, and build and translate the warning notification it will send impacted users. The delay could put Facebook at risk of GDPR fines for not promptly disclosing the issue within 72 hours that can go up to 20 million pounds or 4 percent of annual global revenue.

However, Facebook tells me it notified the IDPC that oversees GDPR on November 22nd, as soon as it established the bug was c***idered a reportable breach under GDPR guidelines. It says that it had to investigate to make that conclusion and let the IDPC know within 72 hours once it had. The head of communicati*** for the IDPC Graham Doyle tells TechCrunch “The Irish DPC has received a number of breach notificati*** from Facebook since the introduction of the GDPR on May 25, 2018. With reference to these data breaches, including the breach in question, we have this week commenced a statutory inquiry examining Facebook’s compliance with the relevant provisi*** of the GDPR.”

Charlie Warzel表示，该公司不再值得我们提供数据：

The timing is interesting — Facebook discovered the bug around the time it publicly announced a (different) massive bug that exposed 30 million users personal information in late September. In October, the scope of the breach widened with reports that the vulnerability exposed not just some users’ emails and phone numbers, but profile information including gender, location, birthdates, and recent search history, as well. The FBI is now investigating that breach.

That’s two massive vulnerabilities in a matter of months — in the same year as the Cambridge Analytica scandal, which also involved milli*** of Facebook users. Taken together, screw ups are mind-boggling in scope, affecting tens of milli*** of people. They aren’t mere email address or password leaks — though emails were certainly leaked — these are breaches of highly personal information — location histories, search histories, photos.

一方面，除非人们将极其敏感的照片上传到Facebook，否则这一最新违规行为的影响似乎有限。Contine描述了有问题的数据“用户上传的照片要么决定不发布，要么因为连接问题而中断，要么他们从未完成共享。”当我想到我自己的照片符合这一描述时，我想到的是很多愚蠢的**、模糊的微光照和其他相机镜头。我宁愿第三方开发人员没有它们，但如果他们有，我也不会惊慌。

这就是为什么我希望接下来的讨论将集中在时间上：Facebook知道什么，何时知道，以及它是否履行了对监管机构的义务。我还预计，这一事件将成为2019年隐私立法故事中反复出现的一段，其中将有很多。

最近，我不断遇到朋友，他们告诉我他们正在限制社交媒体的使用——要么直接删除他们的账户，要么干脆删除移动应用程序，只是偶尔访问桌面上的Facebook等网站(去年我自己也做了一个版本，当时我关闭了所有的Facebook通知，这帮助我将在应用程序中的时间缩短到每天几分钟。）

当我问人们他们是如何达到这一点的时候，有时只有一个转折点。但更多的时候，我发现是不断增加的烦恼和丑闻把人们推到了边缘。在某个时刻，在足够短的时间内，足够多的事情出错，以至于人们会说“见鬼去吧”。最近这起违规事件的细节可能不像第一次出现在头条上那样令人担忧。但我怀疑，对于一小部分人来说，这可能是最后一根稻草。

民主

杰克·多尔西在缅甸参加了一次**组织的热气球旅行

除非我们对杰克·多尔西的《世界旅行》中永无止境的Veep插曲有一个更新，否则这不会是一个合适的2018年底的帖子。感谢Ryan Mac及时更新：

After facing backlash for his visit to Myanmar, a country that has experienced severe sectarian violence and genocide exacerbated by social media, Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey took to his social media service earlier this week to say that his trip was “purely personal.” It was meant to improve his practice of meditation, he wrote in a series of tweets, and there were no conversati*** with the government or non-governmental organizati*** while he was there.

A now-deleted Facebook post shared with BuzzFeed News, however, says that Dorsey took a Burmese government-arranged hot air balloon ride during his more than 10-day stay in the country. A Twitter spokesperson confirmed the balloon ride took place, but said that Dorsey had no knowledge of the government’s involvement in the flight.

忘了大石油吧。谷歌是活动人士的新目标

Gerrit De Vynck和Josh Eidelson报告称，谷歌公司的决策正面临外部压力：

“When I joined Google I never expected we would be the target of an attack ad by Amnesty International,” Harris replied on Twitter, appending her tweet with a sad face emoji. “The Google I joined once (appeared to? pretended to? actually?) stood for so much more than increasing ad revenue,” she added in another tweet on Nov. 30.

Harris, a lead product manager at the company, didn’t respond to requests for comment. But her social-media posts are indicative of a broader uneasiness among some Googlers.

谷歌蜻蜓项目的领导者

Ryan Gallagher为Dragonfly项目发布了一份有用的组织结构图。

In total, only approximately 300 Google employees – 0.35% of the company’s 88,000 total staff – have worked on the censored search engine, which was designed to blacklist broad categories of information about human rights, democracy, and peaceful protest. The search platform would also link Chinese users’ search records to their cellphone numbers and share people’s search histories with a Chinese partner company — meaning that Chinese security agencies, which routinely target activists and critics, could obtain the data.

黄色背心脱掉后，法国的活动家们利用Facebook进行**和策划

Elian Peltier和Adam Satariano发现至少有两位黄背心认为Facebook在这场运动中扮演了重要角色：

“Both fuel each other,” said Mr. Mirallès, 27, a real-estate agent in Perpignan who moderates a Facebook group for protesters that has amassed more than 305,000 members. “Without Facebook there wouldn’t be such a movement, but the online activity is fueled by the energy in the streets.” […]

“I’m not sure Facebook should have this role of amplification,” said Ingrid Levavasseur, 32, a nurse in Normandy who has become a spokeswoman for the movement. For many groups, she said, “it has gotten out of their hands.”

新纳粹分子正在美国各地组织秘密的准军事训练

Ben Makuch和Mack Lamoureux探索“基地”，这是一个社交网络，他们说“似乎在努力将纳粹主义从一个分裂的数字空间转变为实际的暴力叛乱。”也许FBI也可以探索这个问题？请

Within the confines of a secure chat room viewed by VICE, Spear and his burgeoning global web of terror cells are networking, creating propaganda, organizing in-person meet-ups, and discussing potential violence or “direct action” against minority groups, especially Jewish and black Americans. An extensive online library contains a trove of manuals with instructi*** on lone wolf terror-tactics, gun**ithing, data mining, interrogation tactics, counter-surveillance techniques, bomb making, chemical weap*** creation, and guerilla warfare.

The network’s vetting process serves to funnel committed extremists from around the internet into a group explicitly focused on providing users with terroristic skills, in order to produce real-world violence. Members of The Base have made it clear they’re recruiting applicants with military and explosives backgrounds. And in addition to homemade bombs, members have also begun discussing trying to find unexploded World War II ordnance to make improvised explosive devices.

在别处

Facebook在重组其尖端实验和硬件时，悄悄地关闭了其8号楼臭鼬工厂

罗布·普莱斯独家报道说，8号楼被认为是前国防高级研究计划局（DARPA）和谷歌传奇人物雷吉娜·杜根（Regina Dugan）的威利·旺卡式魔法实验室，除其他外，让我们用我们的皮肤去听，它已经关闭。杜根在去年辞职时，可能是写在墙上的，当时他只工作了18个月，什么也没寄出去。另一方面，Facebook的硬件负责人说，这个故事误导了“我们最初在8号楼开始的研究在我们的Facebook Reality Labs研究小组继续进行。”

Some of its most experimental projects have been shunted over to a new division, the Facebook Reality Labs, and its hardware segment has been rebranded as Portal following the launch of Facebook’s home video-chat device.

The Building 8 brand, meanwhile, has quietly been killed off completely, a spokesperson told Business Insider.

随着展示广告停滞不前，Facebook寻求新收入

莎拉·菲舍尔（Sarah Fischer）在Facebook上寻找新收入来源的故事中有一个有趣的提示：花在Facebook财产上的时间确实在减少：

According to a note sent to clients by Wieser, Facebook-related properties (Facebook, Messenger, Instagram and WhatsApp) accounted for under 14% of digital content c***umption last month, which is down from its 18% share two years ago and 16% one year ago.

Facebook在纽约的隐私弹出窗口小而怪异，而且充满了糖分

Megan Farokhmanesh访问了Facebook在布莱恩特公园的弹出式隐私亭，发现了一个F形的棉花糖，想知道这是什么意思：

The pop-up opened at 11AM on Thursday, mainly to a swell of journalists. In the hours around lunch, it was still filled with clicking cameras and interviewers who took up most of the space. As a handful of holiday shoppers wandered in, they made the most of the snack table before circling back up, wagon-style. One Facebook employee acknowledged that the pop-up had mostly catered to media so far, but they were hopeful that more ordinary users will trickle in as offices closed and the markets livened up. A Facebook brand ambassador earnestly offered a survey to people as they left; the majority so far, he said, had declined to offer their thoughts on how the event had changed their view of privacy and Facebook.

Facebook employees emphasized that the event was to promote safety and understanding in its customers. A hands-on experience or a face-to-face with another human might help an average user better understand what their data is actually worth. But the **all scope of the pop-up, combined with essentially printing out instructi*** already available online, felt like a bizarre first step — especially when the location was designed to draw in holiday shoppers who were likely just seeking refuge from the cold.

我们询问了19位事实核查者，他们对与Facebook的合作关系有何看法。这是他们告诉我们的。

Daniel“Uptown”Funke通过一项调查回答了《卫报》昨天关于不满的第三方Facebook事实核查者的报道，并发现总体情绪倾向于积极。值得注意的统计数据：事实核查人员在过去两年中集体认定至少30000个链接为虚假链接。

Judged by their own objectives, fact-checkers appear moderately satisfied with the partnership, rating it on average a 3.5 out of 5. If this were a Yelp review, the restaurant wouldn’t be a must-eat but also not somewhere you would risk food poisoning.

They appear similarly satisfied (3.5 out of 5) with the payment they receive from Facebook for their work — while precise amounts are not generally public and vary across partners based on the work done, Factcheck.org disclosed receiving a palindromic $188,881 from Facebook in fiscal year 2018.

Facebook的区块链集团正在疯狂招聘，以重新投资

亚历克斯·希思（Alex Heath）和塔纳亚·马谢尔（Tanaya Macheel）登录Facebook的区块链部门，发现该部门正在探索一种新的数字货币。也许有一天我们会用它来支付Facebook最高**的罚款：

In recent months, the world’s largest social network has been quietly trying to recruit product managers, engineers, academics, and legal experts with experience in cryptocurrencies and payments, according to people familiar with the effort. Nearly 40 employees — including several former PayPal execs — work in Facebook’s secretive blockchain group, and the company recently appointed a head of business development to oversee acquisiti*** and deals in the space.

Since officially forming its blockchain group just eight months ago, Facebook has sent staffers to crypto conferences around the world to recruit researchers, cryptographers, and top academics in the field. At a private dinner Facebook hosted during a recent crypto conference, one attendee told Cheddar that Facebook employees pitched the idea of creating a decentralized digital currency for the social network’s 2 billion users.

随着该公司处理垃圾邮件，YouTube用户可能会看到订户数量“明显减少”

伟大的我刚刚访问了10个YouTube用户，现在发生了这样的情况：

An official post on YouTube’s product forum states these sweeps are part of routine maintenance the company performs. Removing spam accounts helps to keep YouTube “a fair playing field” for creators, since they can artificially increase a channel’s subscriber count. It’s unclear how many channels will be affected, but YouTube does want people to prepare for a decline.

“We regularly verify the legitimacy of accounts and acti*** on your YouTube channel,” the blog post reads. “As part of these regular checks, we identified and will remove a number of subscribers that were in fact spam from our systems.”

发射

Instagram将开始告诉品牌，哪些产品是用户的书签，哪些可以用于广告定位

人们喜欢使用Instagram，但有时他们会问：为什么我在这个平台上的所有行为都没有明确用于广告目的？Sal Rodriguez报告称，这是另一种常见的数据生成活动，很快将被纳入税收税：

Instagram last month introduced a tool that lets users bookmark products they find on the social network. Now, Instagram is working on an insight tool that will show brands which of their items users are saving, said Layla Amjadi, Instagram product manager. Instagram intends to release this feature within the first half of 2019.

Facebook正在为门户视频聊天设备添加网络浏览器和即时游戏

Facebook门户：仍在积极开发中：

A new update out today for Facebook’s Portal devices adds some much-needed features to the dedicated video chat screens. Now, both the **aller, standard Portal and the larger Portal+ version will be able to access the web through a custom-built browser. That opens up the devices to a proper version of YouTube, Facebook.com, and any number of other news and entertainment sites. (Portal could access YouTube before, but only its rudimentary **art TV version.) In addition to a browser, Facebook is also launching support for its Instant Games platform on Portal, starting with titles like Battleship and Words with Friends.

拿

谢丽尔·桑德伯格的兴衰

安妮·海伦·彼得森追溯了桑德伯格多年来形象的转变，得出结论认为，观察家从未对首席运营官的核心职能给予足够的关注：经营企业：

While the public perception of Sandberg has shifted dramatically — even Michelle Obama recently ragged on Lean In — as far as we know, little about Sandberg or her business strategy has changed. We’re just seeing the earlier incarnati*** of her image for what they were: well-polished distracti*** from the much darker reality of Silicon Valley. Multibillion-dollar tech companies do not ultimately exist to help us live more successful, fulfilled, connected lives. They are built to make money, and c***olidate enough power to keep making it — and the executives that lead them excel by doing so with ruthless efficiency. Unicorns aren’t real, and never have been; the vast majority of us are not Sandberg’s mentees or her friends. We’re customers, and Sandberg’s most pressing business has always been business itself.

YouTube的年度回顾“倒带”视频如何引发内战

凯文·鲁斯（Kevin Roose）探讨了为什么YouTube的年终内容营销视频引发了投票率下降的灾难(我对明年的想法是：YouTube发布了一个“好”的倒带，里面满是G级的创作者，还有一个“坏”的倒带，它调查右翼极端主义的增长，因为它通过推荐算法传播，并使一代年轻人变得激进。）

Drama between YouTube and its creators is nothing new. But the Rewind controversy is indicative of a larger issue at YouTube, which is trying to promote itself as a bastion of cool, inclusive creativity while being accused of radicalizing a generation of young people by pushing them toward increasingly extreme content, and allowing reactionary cranks and c***piracy theorists to dominate its platform.

YouTube’s efforts are complicated by the fact that it does, in fact, have many diverse and interesting creators making compelling videos. But those voices have struggled, at times, to be heard above the roar of the site’s most incendiary figures. There is no mention in YouTube Rewind of Alex Jones, the founder of the c***piracy-theory site Infowars, who built a YouTube empire with milli*** of subscribers and generated more than 1.6 billion views. There was no mention of the group of political YouTubers who make up what Rebecca Lewis at the Data & Society Research Institute has called YouTube’s “alternative influence network,” an influential cohort of video creators who have used their platforms to promote ideas from the right-wing fringes.

Facebook的审查是随机的

我个人是Facebook要求政治广告商披露更多信息的努力的粉丝——除其他外，这让试图影响我们选举的外国代理人的生活更加困难。虽然有一些小问题，但这一回应——包括来自纽约里坎诗人咖啡馆执行董事的这一回应——确实让Facebook陷入了一个不受惩罚的境地。无论如何，我想我们可以讨论一个非营利组织是否需要事先披露一些基本的信息，但我认为应该这样做！这真的没什么大不了的！只需发送挂起的明信片，各位：

Several paid advertising campaigns run by my colleagues and clients have been inexplicably obstructed by Facebook’s policing in the past several months. Facebook refused to allow my New York cultural nonprofit, the Nuyorican Poets Cafe, to pay to promote a post encouraging people to vote in the midterms because our page was not “authorized to run ads related to politics.” A campaign promoting a lecture about sculpture at the Boston Museum of Fine Arts was blocked because Facebook’s censors mistakenly believed it was intended to influence an election in Ireland.

最后。。。

2018年互联网上最好的东西

本周早些时候，我在这里列出了2018年互联网上最糟糕的事情，所以我以最好的事情结尾是公平的。我不太喜欢名人社交媒体，但这里有一个很好的提醒，有些人通常是为了好的目的使用它：

Social media is, by and large, a poison; any quantity is probably too much. And yet there are, dappled among the many celebrities who refuse to log off, a **all number who shine like a beacon in the darkness. There is the transparent goodness of possible golden retriever Chris Evans, who only calls Trump “Biff”; the churlish wit of Vince Staples; and Big Boi’s wonderfully dadlike punning. Ariana Grande, a person who is so good at being famous that she turned a break-up into one of the year’s best singles, refuses to stop owning Piers Morgan. Every Sunday we get to bear witness to The Rock’s comically over-sized “cheat meal”; Tom Hanks still signs all his tweets “Hanx”; Patti Smith joined Instagram and is extremely, unshakably Patti Smith. Chrissy Teigen will not log off and will not stop dunking on her hu**and. Jameela Jamil seems uniquely well-positioned to call out the bullshit of the celebrity apparatus. And, lastly, no one found the Henry Cavill mustache fiasco funnier than Henry Cavill himself, who created a memorial video for it after shaving. How long any of these good famous people can remain good on the internet remains to be seen; for now, though, they have withstood its polarizing winds, reminding us, in the process, why we liked them in the first place.